Monday, November 06, 2006

A poker lesson....

I had an expensive poker lesson tonight. I also learned something about myself and poker again.

Tonight, at Palomar I bought in for $200 and then lost it at the 1/3 No-Limit table playing a little loose. Then I bought in another $150 and later moved over to the 5/10 because I didn’t like this ½ table, when I had about $75 left.

I had tightened up considerably, and had played about 4 hours, before I moved to the 5/10 game. I added another $125 to make the minimum buy-in at the 5/10 No-Limit table.

I was a very short stack there. The stacks ranged from $500-2000. I played a very strong short stack game, and over the next three hours built my stack up to $450. I was about even and was thinking about leaving for the day.

The table was fairly aggressive and I was playing only premium hands when I received pocket jacks in middle position. I just limped in with them. Five others limped in behind me, which was unusual. I was planning on throwing them if they didn’t improve or if a larger card flopped.

The big blind raised it to $100, when it got back to him. When he set in a $100 stack, there was $60 in the pot.

He had $2000 in front of him. He was a smart player, so I respected his move and then began thinking about whether to call him or not. The bet was 4x the blind plus a bet for every player who limped in. It was a good smart bet.

I decided to call the $100 expecting a few value bets behind me, but they all folded like falling dominoes. This changed my odds considerably, but he was very deep stacked, so there were implied odds, I reasoned.

Does he have a larger pair? I called time to think it through. There were at least 6 hands I could beat that he might have bet. In that position he had lots of incentive to raise the pot as last to act, pre-flop with any pair, or AK, AQ, AJ, or A10. There were six limpers who were not willing risk more then a minimum bet to call. There were three hands that had me beat: Aces, Kings or Queens.

The flop came 2, 7, 5 all different suits. I didn’t believe that helped him at all.

The problem was now it became harder for me to get away from the Jacks. I had an over pair to the board. Now I really went into the tank, because he did a continuation bet of $200 which was 70% of my remaining money.

Why didn’t he just force me all-in? Maybe, he doesn’t want me to call?

One hundred would be too cheap, all-in would obviously pot commit me. Was he trying to give me a way out so I wouldn’t call? I thought about what I would do if I was him, and what I would do it with.

If I had AK, I would bet that amount to take a stab at the pot. I called time again, and was told I had 30 seconds to make a decision.

I wrongly decided to call to see another card, knowing this meant I would end up all-in. I called.

The turn card was a 6. No help for either of us. He pushes in a $100 and I push in my last stack and he turns over 2 Aces.

On the river a face card is turned over, but it is the wrong one. It was a queen, not a jack. I congratulated him on playing a good hand as I got up to leave.

I had reached my loss-limit for the day and I was done playing.

As I reflected back over this hand I can see where I made a number of mistakes. When I limped with the Jacks, my plan was to toss them if it was raised and re-raised or if they didn’t improve on the flop.

When nobody else called but me I even jokingly said “Thanks guys, for leaving me alone with him”. The last folder said if only one more had called he would have stayed in. I thought ok, there is a possible two big cards.

When he bet $200 that made the pot $460 and I was going to have to risk $200 more, so I had about 2.6 to 1 to call this.

I don’t know odds well enough to know whether by pot odds alone my call was a poor one or not. I reasoned that there were 6 hands most probable hands I could beat and 3 I couldn’t so there is that 2-1 again, plus if I win I triple up my remaining money.

Here is where I realized I have a slight weakness that could trip me up. I thought about folding by throwing my jacks face down to reveal what a great lay down. Why would I want to throw them face up? For the admiration of the other players I realized. Then I thought, if I think this through and really have the best hand thnt it shows what a good player I am.

Neither of those thoughts were relevant at the time. In fact they were weak, non-professional, donkey type thoughts.

They took away time from what I should have been focused on and revealed to me it is still important to be thought of as a “smart player”. That need to be thought of as a “smart player” is a weakness that can be exploited. In this case it wasn’t, but it muddied up my thinking a little when it needed to be really sharp.

I could have asked him a question or talked to him to get a read. I have done that in the past and it has really helped me get a read. But, I didn’t this time while I was focused on whether I was a “smart player” or not. I tried for a visual read, but he was frozen and staring at the cards.

I “decided” he had AK when I had no real evidence to support that and partly drew that conclusion from what I might have done with that hand. Unfounded reasoning, and an emotional decision to go home a winner was driving me. I did not want to have to work really hard for a few more hours to build back up to the “just even” point. That lousy thinking also helped push me over the edge to call.

The smarter move would have been to raise his $100 bet to $200 if I wanted to play and if he re-raised fold em. If he just called, then I would know, he had a strong hand and without a third jack I could have folded on the flop. In that scenario I would have lost only $200 on the hand instead of $400.

I would really appreciate some comments on this hand.

Was I just a donk? Do you think some of my reasoning was sound? Or am I in self-delusion and should have just folded, which was my first instinct?

Politicians and Terrorists..oh my....

Tomorrow is voting day. I am so disgusted with our political system I am planning on voting against every incumbent (a.k.a. incompetent) and voting against any and all propositions. If enough people would do that, eventually the political professionals would get the message, that we have had enough of politics as usual, and they would make some serious changes.

I think we are heading for social upheaval in this country. The middle class is getting squeezed and when many of them start losing more of the comforts they have had, look out for a backlash!

It is a great country but our way of life is being eroded by some not so great men and women. Politicians and terrorists seem to have the same goal. Protect their own little sectarian ideals by attacking and eroding freedom.

Please vote your conscience. Mine says vote to tell the incumbents you can’t vote for them until they start doing a better job for us.

But, this is a poker blog, a subject far more pleasant then politics.

It was a great night for me at Sycuan last night. I drove there about 2 p.m. thinking I would play a couple of hours before the 4 p.m. Tournament. When I arrived, I found out the 4 p.m. tournament had been moved back to 6 p.m. So, I ended up playing 4 hours of 2/4 No-Limit. I did very well, there, and then had an amazing run in the tournament. I made every hand I played until the final 4 tables then I lost every hand I played and was out. Talk about a couple of quick swings, up and then out. My play didn’t change, in fact, I didn’t have the time to make changes, but, the cards sure did.

The good news is I got back into that 2/4 game when a seat opened. I did even better then I did earlier in the day. I played three small pairs under the gun for a small raise, intending to toss them or win a big pot if a third one flopped. Each time I flopped a set.

It is hard enough to put someone on a small set, but impossible when they raise with the under the gun. Most players believe you must have big cards to raise.

The stacks were fairly deep for 2/4 so I made some nice pots each time by betting them out and being re-raised and then check-calling. It seems like a nice move, though I haven’t read it anywhere yet. I just discovered it in wanting a chance to play small pairs in early position.

I left at 11 p.m. when I found myself chasing an open-ended straight against a “rock” on the table. It would have been a nice pot had I caught it but I didn’t. I have also discovered about myself after 8 hours of play I tend to lose more then I win. Unless it is a very “juicy game” I usually stop after 8-9 hours of play even when I am winning big. I do have a stop-loss limit that is around $500 if I get down that much regardless of how long I have played. If I get there I stop for the day. There have been some days I have played less then 2 hours when I set out to play longer.

Well, it is time to set out to play the Palomar Club. Let's hope I end up playing longer then two hours.

Sunday, November 05, 2006

I'm the lucky one.

I spent a week in Fresno and lost a grand. I could think of a lot of other places I would have rather lost money in, but my daughter Carrie and her husband live there so there you have it. I got lucked out, sucked out, out played, and drawn out on. Not once, but many times. After a week of that I was ready to say goodbye to my daughter and her husband and head for Vegas for a change of scenery and luck. On the way to Bakersfield, Caren called and requested I come home for awhile. She was missing Pokey and me and needed some family time.

I am the lucky one! Even though, I miss many of my draws. Even though, I get “sucked out” on the river more then I think I should. Even though, I haven’t yet doubled my initial poker bankroll yet. I am the lucky one because I have my wife of 35 years who supports my dream to make it as a poker pro. That is a rare combination. She doesn’t play poker, doesn’t quite understand it’s challenges, except through my explanations, but she loves me and supports my quest. That is better then a royal flush in a casino that pays a “monte carlo”.

I haven’t yet ended my road trip, but I have been home now two weeks at her request. We are dealing with an insurance claim on our garage that flooded by the upstairs condo owner. I am dealing with that, but mainly, Pokey and I were missed by her. I am not sure who was missed more, me or the dog Pokey, but being a wise husband I don’t inquire any further. (grin)

I have seemed to have broken that bad streak that began when I got to Casino 101 and followed me all the way down the state.

I haven’t made much in this last two weeks but I haven’t lost any and that is sometime a very good thing.

I having been playing mainly at the Palomar Club. There have been some really positive changes there over the time I have been there since 2003. You could say it has mirrored the poker boom. In 2003, and for many years before that, it had just one 3/6 game with just a few regulars and a pai-gow table. Less then once a week it might get an Omaha game going for a few hours.

It was a dirty little place with nothing newer in it then vintage 1960’s including the TV. There was a little dive of a bar next door that occasionally one or two of the regulars walked over to and then came back and played looser for awhile.

Then the Palomar bought the building, and cleaned out the bar and sold off the liquor license. They removed the wall between the old bar and the old room, and totally remodeled with plasma screen TV’s, new tables, chairs, fresh paint and new carpet.

What a difference!

Now everyday there are two 3/6 limit games, and 4 N/L games going with spreads from 1/2 – 10/10 with as much a 20-50K on the big game.

Now instead of one short-handed table there is about an hour wait list for any game.

I love it!

Even though the Village Club is 4 miles from my home, I drive the 20 miles here because of the difference in the environment. I hope the Village Club gets the message, however, they are still usually full, no more room for parking, and they haven’t spent spend a dime on the facilities since Nixon’s first term. I wouldn’t bet on change there anytime soon.

Today, I am skipping both of them and driving to Sycuan to play the afternoon tournament and maybe hit the jackpot again. That is what gave me my poker bankroll in the first place. That was almost two years ago and it is still about the same size. I would like to see it double so I could play the 5/10 game a little more. It is still a little too small to survive the 5/10 NL variance. I have done ok in it, but I am always the short stack and have a couple of moves that I cannot use because I can only play tight as a short stack unless I want to try a Gus Hansen and go home in the first hour if it doesn’t work.

I hope to be over in Vegas for a week before Thanksgiving day. I seems to write a lot more when I am on the road in the RV.

Longing to get “back on the road again”, but loving being with my wife at home.