Play good...lose less....

I once thought I could make money by playing poker really well. I have since changed my mind.

Don’t get me wrong I am still playing poker full-time and I am still winning most weeks.

Then what do I mean?

I am coming to believe that in small no-limit games, good play alone does not really give, you an edge to win.

However, playing well does reduce the amount you lose. Then you need less luck to end up with more chips then you risked.

The other night at Palomar illustrated that so well for me. I bought in to my usual 2/3 no-limit game for $300 twice that evening. Meaning I had a risk of $600.

The first three hours I only played five hands. I got my money in or lead the betting with the best hands in all five plays. On all five I got outdrawn and lost each of them.

I then played 2 more hands where I split the pot by playing AK very strongly from early position. I was called by an AK each time. We ended up splitting the pot for no net gain for either of us.

Then these two following hands came up.

I was on the small blind with a pair of Jacks with about $400 in front of me. Under the gun had “live straddled” meaning $6 was the call.

The next very short stack put all in his $15. The button called the $15. I decided to try to end it right here and raised it to $65 into a $39 pot.

Every one folded except the button who called. I knew him to be an aggressive, creative player.

The flop came 10h,6s,7c. I bet out $75 and the button raised me to $150. I thought a lot about this and really believed he was trying to take me off the hand. He had seen me play AK strong twice that evening from early position. I believed he suspected I had a big pair or AK. I figured him on a pair. I thought about it for a long time and convinced myself he was being tricky with a weak hand. I would not have thought this way about anyone else at the table except for him.

I pushed all-in for all my remaining money. He insta-called. I turned over my jacks and he turned over trip tens. The turn and the river were both hearts! My losing pair of jacks turned into a jack high flush. He was devastated.

I scooped an $800 pot that I had just played very badly!

After playing another hour or more and losing about $200 by betting with the best hands, and again getting outdrawn, each time, this hand came up.

I was on the button with Ace & Queen. Three people had limped in. I raised it to $25. Everyone folded, with the exception of the guy who had lost the $800 pot to me.

He called my $25.

The flop came A,K,10 He pushed in his last $50 and I decided to call with my AQ even though I strongly believed, he held AK (Which it turned out he did).

The turn was a 7 and the river was a Jack giving me a straight! He was very professional. He said “nice catch” then to dealer “seat open”. He shook my hand and left for the evening.

Shortly after that I cashed out a little over $850 resulting in a profit of about $350.

So the net result of that evening was, I played great poker, getting my money in with the best hands seven times and lost them all. I broke even twice with great hands and good play.

All my profit came from two hands where I won, only because I got very lucky with low probabilities holdings that somehow turned into winners at the river.

So what do you think? Am I right?

Playing well does not give you an edge to win. Play poker well and lose less. Then get lucky and you can make some real money at this game.



P.S. I may have to re-think my reason for why people play poker. Two earlier blogs indicated other reasons, then easy money & greedy thinking. My observation last night challenged my thinking.
I arrived right at 6 p.m. to enter a Sunday night tournament that if you placed in the top would win you an entry into a tournament into June.

The June tournament winner would be awarded a $10,000 entry into the World Series of Poker in Vegas in July along with expense money for the trip.
220 people were already signed up for the tournament. Fifty more of us were unable to get in who wanted to play it, but had arrived too late.

Casino and poker rooms use tournaments to lure players in with the hope that when they “bust out” of the tournament they will sit down and play at the cash games. Yet, three hours after the tournament began the room was having trouble keep eight cash games going.

That clearly indicated many people came for the tournament for the slim, unlikely possibility, they would place in the top twenty. Then win the June one. And somehow make it through 7,000 other players in Las Vegas, to be on TV for fame and fortune.

Hmm, maybe there are a lot more players who believe Poker is a way for easy money and are motivated by their greed then I thought. (I may have to revisit this thought a few more times.)